Sedge Court Journal
Providing sports fans with expert analysis since 2004

Monday, August 24, 2009


As many of you know, knowing who to bet against can be just as important as knowing who to bet on. Thats why this will be my fourth year of releasing my Top Ten list of NCAA College Football teams that I think will under-perform against the spread.

But before we get into this years list, lets take a moment to review the previous years picks. Why? Because I crushed it and credibility is the name of the game when it comes to choosinsg a handicapper.......

2008 Top Ten Worst ATS Football Predictions

2007 Top Ten Worst ATS Football Predictions

2006 Top Ten Worst ATS Football Predictions

........and consistancy!!!!!!!!!!

As you can see over 70% of my predictions were paying dividends for those wise enough to follow my picks... the 30% that last were pushing .500. The net result being nothing but winners...and the proof is all documented!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ok, Ill forgo my methodology as you can read all about it from in last years post and get right to my predictions. Remember, these are the teams I would avoid betting on or would bet against:

10.)Penn State (2008 Results: 11-1 SU; 7-3-1 ATS)

Cover of SI, Winning Record both Straight Up and Against the Spread in the previous season...ohh and did I mention they were on the cover of Sports Illustrated?

9.)Georgia Tech (2008 Results: 9-3 SU; 7-2 ATS)

The Yellow Jackets certainley stung the bookmakers with a 7-2 performance ATS spread last year and tenured sports bettors know GT is capable of airing out the ball and running up the scoreboard. I see the books padding the line and lots of cappers finding their money stuck in a plastic water bottle that is half filled with suger water.

8.)Utah (2008 Results: 12-0 SU; 7-3-1 ATS)

The Utes. They had the second highest scoring offense in the NCAA right behind Boise State. And even though they were undefeated they still fail to gain the resoupect sportswriters give to bigger schools. Needless to say they play on Tuesdays and Thursdays and the bookmakers know that when you combine the only game in town with a high powered offense they can suck you in.

7.)Boise State (2008 Results: 12-0 SU; 7-3-1 ATS)

See above.

6.)TCU (2008 Results: 10-2 SU; 8-3 ATS)

Other than Utah, Texas Christian is the only other team in the Mountain West that is worth a damn; but lets remember it is the Mountain West. That means parity, because lets face it, no program in that conference is gonna get you to the NFL. Bottom line: The Mountain West is a crap shoot and past performance is not indicative of future results.

5.)Alabama (2008 Results: 12-1 SU; 9-4 ATS)

Roll Tide!!!!! You would have been rolling in Benjamins had you bet Bama last year. The Crimson Tide rolled through the SEC (aka the toughest conference in college football) last year and carried with them those that bet them. Dominent teams in big time conferences can have repeat performances Straight Up, but these lines just get to tough to repeat and I would stay away.

4.)Texas (2008 results: 11-1 SU; 9-3 ATS)

No way, No How. Texas will have a losing season bot straight up and ATS. Mark it.

3.)Ball State (2008 results: 12-1 SU; 9-3 ATS)

If I told you Testicle Tech had the fourth most powerful offense in the NCAA you would accuse me of lieing or point out that they play in the MAC...the Mountain West of the Midwest. Ok thats not fair. The MAC is like the JV of the Mountain West in the midwest. Either way this team is posed to disappoint in a very big way....sorry Indiana; you still have IU, Notre Dame; ok never mind.

2.)Oklahoma (2008 Results: 12-1 SU; 10-2 ATS)

The Sooners are sneaking up on no one--the least of who will be bookmakers

1.)Florida (2008 Results:12-1 SU; 10-2 ATS)

Fool me once; shame on you; Fool me twice, shame on you for listening to me when clearly I didnt have a clue the first time. Yes readers, it true. I had Florida as a team I thought would underperform ATS last year and not only was I wrong but I got crushed by the Gators. Needless to say I am going against them in a very big way. Why? National Champions that have gone 19-6 ATS over the last two years with their golden boy returning. No way do they books lose money on Florida this year. Thats what pre-construction condos are for.

Stay Polska,



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