Sedge Court Journal
Providing sports fans with expert analysis since 2004

Saturday, September 08, 2007

Q. What do Michigan and Marijuana have in Common?


I am not going to gloat about winning another "Pick of the Week"; because I will lose a few this year. However, I will say that becoming a consistent winner requires doing your homework. It is undisputed that I am the best prepared handicapper on this site. I traffic in knowledge and substance not hyperbole. I can understand why someone would jump on the Saints and take the points. It had the feel of a game that might have been close. I, on the other-hand, look for where the obvious in-efficiency is. The squares thought this would be a shoot out; I knew it would go under, and, I, told you, for weeks that the Colts Defense was looking good. I also knew, that in 2006 only 3 out of 276 NFL games went over 50 points! I do my homework. I win my big picks. If you followed me, you should be playing with the house's money on these next three gems.

Here is my theme for Saturday: Redemption.

A number of big time programs stepped on their Kielbasa's last week and they need in a very big way to step up this weekend. It's hard to look at these schools from a quantitative perspective because we only have last weeks numbers to base our decisions on. That's why I hate the early part of the season. My formulas are just not reliable this early on and as such, I am forced to rely more on the qualitative factors. In short, I like these picks because of the situation these schools are in but I would be lying if I said the numbers support my picks. With the exception of Oregon at Michigan, I am on the opposite side of the consensus. That is one factor, that I do indeed like. The public is mostly wrong.

Oregon at Michigan (-7)

Yep, Llyod Carr stepped on his Kielbasa in a big way. It's old news and everyone (including myself) has written the entire Michigan season off. Last friday night, Michigan alums were sharing wet dreams of a BCS Championship. By Saturday Night, that wet dream turned into a nightmare where they were squealing and getting corn-holed by a redneck. So here we are. Do the mail it in or do they step up in a big way and reclaim there status as the most over-rated team in the Big Ten?

I bet they step it. The only way Michigan can have a shot at a BCS Bowl Game is to forget about last week and go out, starting today, and pummel the living crap out of their opponents. By week 9, they could be back in the Top 10. But they have to execute and absolutely crush their enemy's. It's worth a 100 point pick to see if the Over-rated pre-season team can do what they were expected to before a snap was taken.

Polish X: Oregon 21 / Michigan 31

Robnosticator's Pick: Michigan -7 (1 Pierogi)

Notre Dame (+18) at Penn State

Every thing I said about Michigan applies here as well.....with one additional consideration. Charlie Weiss is a big fat mean mother-fucker. The Domers are going to lose but, call me a sucker for big points. I will take two TD's and a FG plus, on Notre Dame not completely shitting the bed two weeks in a row. Notre Dame loses but we still cover.

Polish X: Notre Dame 14 / Penn State 31

Robnosticator's Pick: Notre Dame +18 (1 Pierogi)

UAB (+35) at Florida State

Q. Is Clemson that Good or are the SEMENholes that bad? Golly, did FSU look terrible during Monday Nights Bowden Bowl. Drew Weatherford was not impressive and the FSU defense couldn't stop shit. This will be a big game for UAB as the two schools are not that far apart. UAB has been know to be a real PITA for opponents in the past and I think the 35 points is way to generous given FSU's performance on Monday Night.

Polish X: UAB 21 / FSU 36

Robnosticator's Pick: UAB +35 (1 Pierogi)

That's it for Saturday. I will try to get some NFL Picks in but may defer this Sunday. We will see how today works out.

Stay Polska,



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