Sedge Court Journal
Providing sports fans with expert analysis since 2004

Thursday, August 09, 2007



First free football pick of the year and guess what? Yeah, you know......It's a winner. That's how we do it on the Sedge.

The purpose of this post is not to brag (yes, it is) but to also share some worthwhile advice that I hope you will take to heart.

"Bet favorites early in the week; Bet the underdogs late"

As you can see, both myself and the Big Dumb Animal had Dallas as our pick for tonight's game. We both had the same rationale for the pick (he stole my idea) and believed that the Colts would be trying to expose weaknesses with their rookies. However, the line we got from our sportsbook was totally different. When I made my pick on Monday, John Navarre was a Colt, and the line was Dallas minus 4 1/2. When BDA made his pick, two hours before kick-off, Navarre was "in-between jobs" and Dallas had moved to a 6 1/2 point favorite (largely due to my pick being made public). As it turns out, it did not make much of a difference because we both cashed in for our readers. And, as I had accurately predicted this was the "perfect setup to see the Colts get thumped". But that's not my point; as Al Pacino so eloquently pointed out in the classic film, Any Given Sunday, "life is a game of inches" and "we need to fight for those inches". Had the Colts recovered that onside kick in garbage time and managed to score, the difference would have been between covering and losing. For my followers, I always look for the edge. I always look for the best value in the line. In other words, I fight for those inches......................

And I win.

Stay Polska,



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