Sedge Court Journal
Providing sports fans with expert analysis since 2004

Monday, August 27, 2007


Last year I released my first Top 10 Worst ATS College Football Predictions and as I reported earlier this month the predictions were pretty damn spot on. With the official kick off of College Football coming this week its time to do it again. Remember, this is my prediction of how they will do ATS. Higher rated teams tend to do worse. So take no offense; it's sort of like a back-handed compliment.

10.) Hawaii - It's 10:00 p.m. You are drunk and you just watched the last piece of action you had placed on a PAC-10 team get blown up in garbage time. What do you do? Play on Hawaii!!!! The late night Hawaii bet has been known to save a Saturday more than once and last year the Rainbow Warriors were 8-2-1 ATS. The bookmakers will shave points this year and leave a lot of bettors with a massive hangover.

9.)Texas A & M- The Aggies were 8-2 last year and left bettors with a great taste in their month when the not only covered but beat Texas on the road as 14 point dog. Despite last years success, the Aggies are not in the Elite rankings yet and bettors should remember that they failed to cover and almost lost to Army as a 28 point favorite.

8.)Brigham Young- BYU was an impressive 9-2-1 ATS last year and throttled Oregon in the Las Vegas bowl last year. Ya think the linesmakers noticed?

7.)Rutgers- Every year there is a Cinderella Story and last year it was Rutgers. 10-2 straight up is more memorable than 6-3-1 ATS. It takes years for a program to turnaround and my guess is that Rutgers rep has improved more than their talent. Be careful and remember what happened to Cinderella at midnight.

6.)Virginia Tech- I have always liked Frank Beamer and the Hokies. They have been a solid team year in and year out and tend to cover the number. You can never rule out their special teams which consistently makes play but, I got to believe the days off them being under-valued are over.

5.)Oklahoma- Yes they lost to the other Cinderella story- Boise State- in the Fiesta Bowl, but rememeber they were still 8-3-1 ATS. .500 is were I see them against the man come December.

4.)Wisconsin- The Badgers were an incredible 11-1 SU last year and 8-2-1 against the spread. This year they appear in the Top 25 AP poll and look set for a legitmate run at the BCS. Their first game is against Washington State and already they are set as a 14 point favorite. I will be at that game and release my pick later this week, but, 14 points seems awfully tempting.

3.)Louisville- The Cards have been solid the last couple of year and bettors and college football fans know that they are a contender for the BCS and that they can put up some numbers. The books will be pricing Louisville appropriately and sharps who watch the lines can probably find some good action betting against them.

2.)Michigan- Cover of Sports Illustrated; Number 5 in the AP Poll, Scientifically proven to be over-rated by me; and 7-4-1 ATS last year. The signs are all there folks; the Wolverines are going to make someone very wealthy...and they are the ones that make the line (FWIW.. I said they would do well ATS last year)

1.)Ohio State- Classic. OSU made the list last year, and was one of only 3 teams in the poll that had a winning record. Over the last two years the Buckeys are an incredible 17-6 ATS (73.9%). That has to be one of the best record in football and in statistics there is a concept called "reversion to the mean". I've got to believe the bookmakers have had it with sending money to Ohio and I predicted sub .500 performance against the spread for the Buckeyes in 2007

Of course, there are a couple of teams I like and I think my do well against the man.

Notre Dame- The Irish were my number two pick last year and finished with a losing record ATS. With Brady Quinn gone even the most faithful have already begun writing of the Irish. I think you may be in for some surprises.

Florida- Despite winning the National Championship I don't think that the Gators are getting the respect thet deserve. Mix in my evidence that the SEC is over-rated and garnish it with the fact that they went 3-8 ATS last year; and I suspect some folks might get lucky betting Florida.

Miami- The bigger they are the harder they fall. The Hurricanes have killed point spread players the last two years. Sentiment is so bad they did not even make it in the AP poll pre-season Top-25. This is the team to watch. Yes, they have had problems, but like other great programs, they don't rebuild.....they reload.

Back later this week with the report card and my first "real" picks of the year.

Stay Polska,



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