Sedge Court Journal
Providing sports fans with expert analysis since 2004

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

Greetings Loyal Sedgies!!!!!!!!

It has been a long hot summer and those of us over here at the Sedge Court Journal have spent our days enjoying Ice Cold Cerveza's and wasting the days away without care. But with Training Camps around the corner and pre-season action not far behind it's time to get back to business and start our preparations for the 2007 -2008 NFL and NCAA Football Season.

Last August, I prepared the First Annual Quantitative Analysis of my Football Picks. The purpose of this report was to not only quantify how I did, but to identify my strengths, the areas where improvement is needed, and to test some beliefs that I held. It was a useful exercise and as you already know, I won more of my picks this year than last and extend my personal winning streak to a third consecutive year.

Now heed these words. If you want to win you need to read my words. You need to understand why I make my picks. You have to invest your time not just your money. If your to lazy to do these things you will never become a successful sports handicapper like myself.

My Documented Overall Record was 84-63-2 (57.14%)!!!!!!!!!!!

My Bankroll Increase was 58%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

My Pick of the Week was 15-5-1 (75.0%)!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

My Pick of the Month 2-0-0 (100 FUCKING PERCENT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

Is that what you did? I doubt it. Was it what your paid scamdicapper did. I doubt it more. How do I know this. Because my website explodes every year with traffic in August and September and then starts to decline in October when the losers have burned through their bankroll. Unlike other cappers, I take the slow and steady approach. I don't make big bets because big bets gone wrong beget bigger bets that go wrong and bust the bank.

So why do I go through all this trouble?

First and foremost is that I, like you, enjoy it. I frickin damn love it. There is nothing better than a pleasant autumn afternoon spent with good friends, a cold beer, and an exciting game with a bit of action on the side to get the blood pumping.

Second, If I am going to put money in action, I may as well spend some time figuring out what works for me and what doesn't'. I just cant understand how some losers can continue on with a losing endeavour year after year after year.

Third, to increase the popularity of this site and make a little bit of advertising coin from the sponsor's. The better I do, the more readers we get. The more readers we have the more advertising revenue I generate. How much revenue do we make? Not much, but lets just say this little hobby of mine generated enough cash after expenses to pay the greater part of a two week sojourn to Europe. With your help, maybe it will pay for a 7 series in the not to distant future.

So with all that said let me get to the results and lessons learned from last year. My overall strategy in 2006 was still bet dogs but to avoid "Big Dogs"; a trap I fell into in 05. I also focused ore heavily on the NFL where I had experienced greater success in 05. Overall, I followed my plan but I did make some of the same mistakes this year as I did last. This stats should give you a good idea at knowing when to play with me and when to fade me. At the very least it should give you some useful tips on how to become a successful handicapper. I suggest you read every word twice and commit my teachings to memory. Other people would charge thousands for this priceless information.

Robnosticator's 2006 Free Football Picks (ATS) Analysis

Overall: 84-63-2 (57.14%)

NFL: 50-35-0 (58.8%)
NCAA: 34-28-2 (54.8%)

Tip#1: Resist the urge to bet every damn game. In 2005 I bet on 169 games, last year I reduced my games bet by almost 12% percent and increased my winning percentage almost 2.5%. This might seem trivial but anywhere you can add positive percentages to your record only serves to increase your bankroll. The more games you bet the more statistically likely you will be to move towards .500. For many, those extra bets come late in the day when the beers have already been flowing. I can tell you that action can ruin a good day and make a bad day worse. Plan your bets and bet your plan. Don't try and bail yourself out late night it doesn't work.

Tip#2: Bet what you know, not whats on T.V. Last years analysis demonstrated that I was better at picking NFL games than College. As this years results demonstrate, that statistic held true. Admittedly, I enjoy college more due to it's unpredictability and pureness, but I follow the NFL a lot closer due to my affinity for the Colts. As a result a have a better "feel" for an NFL line than one in College. It's easy to want to bet College games because they are on " T.V." even if you don't have a great feel for either team. Resist the urge and stick with what you know.

Favorites: 30-23-0 (56.6%)
Dogs: 46-32-2 (58.9)
Over/Unders: 7-7-0 (50.0%)

Tip #3: Betting Dogs wins but sometimes you should just put that mutt down. Remember "The Rat"? Most of what he says he sophomoric nonsense, but every decade he says some that's worth repeating. Last year, before he busted his bankroll he reminded his readers that "The BCS is a beauty pageant". Profound words from a guy who scored a 12 on his ACT. The point? Dogs are good bets but be very cautious when you are getting more than 11 points. These teams suck and in College running up the score is important when competing for a BCS bowl. Consider these stats...

NCAA Stats

Points Getting:
0-3: 6-2-0
4-6: 2-1-0
7-10: 3-5
10-up: 8-6-2

As these numbers illustrate the money was made on dogs of less than 7 points. 7 and up was a losing proposition for me. Lesson learned is that we should not be enamored by a lot of points. And the same thing holds true for the NFL.

NFL Stats

Points Getting:
0-3: 8-2
4-6: 5-2
7-10: 9-9
11 and up: 5-6

I mean look at that. I am less than 50% in the NFL when I am getting a TD or more! Who would have thought that. What's funny is this was the exact result I had the year before. So remember don't bet a crappy team just because it is getting a lot of points, bet good teams that are getting points. The point is not to stop betting these big dogs but to cause you to stop and think twice before you do. Nuff said.

Tip#4: Play Favorites of less than a FG. Not much of a tip, I know, but I should point out that even I will take action on a favorite now and again. Here is how I did.

NFL Stats

Points Giving:
0-3: 11-4
4-6: 2-6
7-10: 3-0
11 and up: 0-1

NCAA Stats:

Points Giving:
0-3: 5-3
4-6: 4-7
7-10: 3-0
11 and up: 1-1

Wow, what the fuck does that tell you. I am killing it when I play favorites of less than 3 points, losing my ass between 4-6, and I am perfect when giving between 7 and 10. Ohh, and I deserve to lose if I give more than a TD and a FG. Bottom line is that like 2005, the less than a FG favorites have been money. That's a consistent trend and I should remember it along with the resistance to every lay another nickel on a favorite of more than 10 points.

Over/Unders: 7-7 (50%)

Tip#5: Even I start to believe my bullshit. Last year I convinced myself that playing unders was the way to go due to my high winning percentage. The truth is that I did not play enough of these bets to come to any real conclusion. As a result I heavily favored the Under, specifically as a contrarian during Colts games and got blasted several weeks in a row as Manning and crew ran up the scoreboard. My point. It works till it doesn't these are "TIPS" not "RULES"

Pick of the Week Overall: 15-5-1 (75%)
Dogs: 6-3-1
Faves: 7-2-0
Over/Under: 2-0
NCAA- 7-1-1

Pick of the Month: 2-0-0 (100%)
Dogs: 0-0
Faves: 2-0
NFL: 1-0
NCAA: 1-0

Tip#6: If you only follow one of my picks per week, make it my Pick of the Week!!!! If there is one thing I am truly proud of its my Pick of the Week and my Pick of the Month. I will always give a POW but last year only two games met my POM criteria. The stats show no rhyme or reason other than I cleaned up when I was betting college. What I will tell you is that after I have identified the games I like I run each one through a model I developed, then I look at where the action is going, both from the wise guys and the public, and one of the matchups will rise to the top. That's the pick of the week/month and for two years its been money!

So there you have it. The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly. Will I have another winning year? Only time will tell, but like a fine wine I just get better with age. I have always held that if you don't know where you've been you'll never know where you're going. I hope this breakdown helps you as much as it does me.

As for whats next, you can expect the content here at the Sedge Court Journal to steadily increase over the coming weeks as we get geared up for this years football season. In the next few weeks I will release my "2nd Annual NCAAF Top 10 Worst ATS Prediction". The premier Top 10 List was right on the money and you can view the original prediction here along with my year end review here. Also, we will be announcing the official rules and prize money for the 2007 Football Handicapping Competition. The Prize money will again be increasing so if your are interested in participating, I suggest you familiarize yourself with last years rules and contact me via email with your interest. And last but not least we really want your suggestion on how to make our site better and to encourage more reader participation in the comments section. Please don't be frightened to leave your thoughts.

In the meantime.....

Stay Polska,



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