Sedge Court Journal
Providing sports fans with expert analysis since 2004

Thursday, June 07, 2007

As you may remember, last August, before the College Football season kicked-off, I presented you with my first annual "NCAAF Worst 10 ATS Prediction". As I wrote then, the purpose of this Top Ten list was to "...make you money. Who cares who is ranked #1 this week? I want to know who is going to cover this week and more importantly who will consitently beat the man throughout the season. One of the easist ways to cover is to find out where the oddsmakers think they can add points to a line and still take advantage of the squares. This list is who I think WONT have a winning record ATS this year." Sports handicapping like an endevour requires both discipline and the ability to find and unlock hidden value. A axiom of corporate America is "if you can measure it, you can manage it". Now, that we are in our dead time, I have decided to take the time to measure how my predictions actually held up.
To recap, I utilized the three following criteria in developing my list last year:
1.) The Pre-Season Top 25 lists was based on common collective wisdom. Odds makers make the opening lines greater on favorites because they know that "Joe Alumni" will bets his alma mater and does'nt understand the value of an extra 2-3 points in a line.
2.) Bettors remember teams that covered the number and made them money last year; they expect (hope) that those results repeat themselves.
3.) The weaker the schedule the more likely the team is unlikely to cover the number.
So lets take a look at how I did..........
10.) West Virgina: 5-6-1 ATS
9.) Auburn: 6-6-0 ATS
8.)TCU: 9-3-0 ATS
7.)Oregon: 6-6-0 ATS
6.)Clemson: 6-7-0 ATS
5.)Ohio State: 9-4-0 ATS
4.)Virginia Tech: 7-5-0 ATS
3.)Texas: 5-7-0 ATS
2.)Notre Dame: 5-7-0 ATS
1.)Penn State: 5-6-1 ATS
Wowsa. 10 teams that I told you to stay away from or bet against. 3 had winning records; 2 pushed; and 5 had losing records ATS the spread!!!!!!!!
Now don't forget, I also named 5 teams who I thought would do well since they disappointed theie bettors the previus year. They were.....
Southern California: 7-6-0 ATS
Georgia: 5-6-1 ATS
Michigan: 7-5-1 ATS
Miami: 3-8-1 ATS (Ouch!!!)
Alabama: 6-7 ATS
Not impressive on these predictions as the were 2-3 in winning records, but it is clear that my teams to avoid was very prescient. In looking at this list I have already identified, two teams that will be on the avoid list again this year and one team that I think could post big numbers for point spread players. The list will be released in August, till then.............
Stay Polska,


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