Sedge Court Journal
Providing sports fans with expert analysis since 2004

Wednesday, May 09, 2007

Who new MAC powerhouse, "The Toledo Rockets" were shaving points?
This guy!!!!!!!!!!
It's been a while since I have sat down at my keyboard and thought about football and, more importantly about handicapping football. But today a saw a little nugget of information that substantiated my long held beliefs, so I decided to spend a minute to share this information with those loyal readers who still stop by the Sedge Court Journal during our slow season.
I have always maintained that in order to succeed at any endeavour you have to first and foremost become a student of your craft and actively seek out information. That's why I constantly read websites like and on a daily basis. These sites provide a ton of useful information that over the years has helped me to become a profitable sports handicapper. Normally, you have to dig deep to find an edge, but today the USA Today ran an article that had a a great nugget of information that the experienced handicapper will profit from.
So there I was, in the lobby of my day job, getting my shoes shined before I was to give a riveting presentation on the 2006 Pension Protection Act, when I eyed the front page headline in the USA Today's Sport Section...."Point Shaving Remains a Concern in College Athletics". Intrigued, I grabbed the paper to read what schools were shaving. As I assumed, it wasn't a Big Ten school, a SEC School, or even a mighty ACC school. Nope, it was a story about the Toledo Rockets from the Mighty MAC.
Interestingly, the article presented to arguments, that are noteworthy and should be remembered come next season.
First, point shaving is often done on Favorites failing to cover the spread, as opposed to dogs throwing the game. As the article correctly points out, point shaving on dogs is extremely difficult because athletes at that level are still extremely competitive. In other words, athletes want to win. If there is money by not crushing their opponent they will be likely to work with a scamster but asking them to lose outright is a tough sell.
Second, point shaving is more likely to occur in mid-tier conferences where the likelihood of a post-college career is slim. These kids recognize that they will never receive a payday (outside of the free education the receive) to cash in on their athletic ability. The temptation to take a few grand is an easy sell; especially when all party's recognize that's the only cash they will ever receive from sports.
So, remember this from the Polish Prognosticator.....
-Place the majority of your action underdogs.
-Avoid huge favorites in the mid-tier schools
-visit the Sedge Court Journal.
Lastly, I want to give you an update on what I will be working on between now and August.
First, last year I provided my inaugural "Worst 10 ATS Poll". Unlike most pre-season polls, mine is designed to tell you which team to fade during the coming season. It is my intention to provide a report on my predictions and to provide my predictions for 2007.
Second, last year prior to the season, I provided a "Quantitative Analysis of my Football Picks". This report is my way of taking a step back and look at my action holistically as opposed a game by game basis. This helps YOU identify my strengths, and helps me identify my weaknesses.
I know it's only May but god damn..... I am ready for some football!!!!!!!
Stay Polska,


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