Sedge Court Journal
Providing sports fans with expert analysis since 2004




Friday, August 18, 2006


Ahhh, College Football is just a mere few weeks away and the ubiquotious and meaningless polls have already begun. Every asshole has an opinion regarding why or why not one team is ranked higher than another. In fact, there is even a gay Top 25 BlogPoll where Michigan Fans self-gratify themselves into believing that they should rank higher and will qualify for a BCS bowl game. The problem with all these pre-season polls is that they serve no other purpose than to give fans somthing to bitch about till the teams suit-up and prove the pundits wrong. Until Now....

The Robnosticator has decided to release his first "Annual Top 10" list except I could care less who ranks where! My list is designed to make you big Zloty's !!

Robnosticator's 2006 College Football Worst 10 (ATS)
Look, my poll will make you money. Who cares who is ranked #1 this week? I want to know who is going to cover this week and more importantly who will consitently beat the man throughout the season. One of the easist ways to cover is to find out where the oddsmakers think they can add points to a line and still take advantage of the squares. This list is who I think WONT have a winning record ATS this year.

Let me explain my methodology and the common set of beliefs used to develop the list.

1.) The Pre-Season Top 25 lists are based on common collective wisdom. Odds makers make the opening lines greater on favorites because they know that "Joe Alumni" will bets his alma mater and does'nt understand the value of an extra 2-3 points in a line. (the reaction to my Michigan Sucks comments illustrates this point extremely well)
2.) Bettors remember teams that covered the number and made them money last year; they expect (hope) that those results repeat themselves.
3.) The weaker the schedule the more likely the team is unlikely to cover the number.

So here we go....

10.)West Virginia- The team everybody seems to love. 8-2 ATS the spread last year makes them a great team to go against this year. Bettors got caught undervaluing them last year and like lambs will follow the herd this season.

9.) Auburn- The Tigers were 8-2 ATS last year in one of the toughest conferences in college football. There is no way they repeat that performance.

8.) TCU- The horned Frogs were 8-3 ATS last year and finished in the Top 25. There schedule is weak and they are getting to much love from bettors recently. This year they shit the bed.

7.) Oregon- Everyone knows that West Coast football gets no respect. 10-1 straight up last year and they did not even get a BCS Bowl. PAC and WAC schools are great ATS later in the season when the east coast sportswriters start paying attention to Southern Cals red-headed stepsisters. They may cover early but will shit the bed in the second half of the year. (7-3 ats last year)

6.) Clemson- He beat his dad last year. BFD. This team will be .500 at best against the spread come december. (7-3 ATS last year)

5.) Ohio State- A lot of pressue is on this team now that they have been ranked #1 in the pre-season polls. Expect the books to post huge number on the Buckeyes and steal money from their inbred fans . (8-3 ATS last year)

4.)Virginia Tech- Finished last year with a 9-3 record against the spread which was impressive given the strength of their schedules. This is one of my favorite teams in college football and I have great respect for Frank Beamer; but the Hokies look destined to have the oddsmakers over-value them. The Hokies are great team to bet SU but be careful when laying big numbers.

3.) Texas- 10-2 against the number last year was the best record against the spread in the Top 25 but given the loss of key players like Vince Young and the disrespect that the USA Today poll ranked them behind Ohio State leads me to believe that the books will be less agressive in shaving the number than with my first and second pick.

2.) Notre Dame- Maybe its because I got my SI today and the cover looks kind of gay or maybe it's because I think these guys are getting to much hype; either way I don't see a repeat of their 7-4 performance against the number this year . Out of my Top 10 list they had the third weakest schedule last year. Every one will be jumping on the Irish early and I see some nice early season covers.

1.) Penn State- The Nittany Lions were the cinderellas story last year and you can expect that the faithful will be moving these lines up nicely. Last year they finished 8-3 ATS which tied them for third in the Top 25 however they had one of the weakest schedule of the three.

BTW, before you fucks start ripping me for these predictions consider these against the spread records from last year;

Sourthern California- 6-6
Georgia- 6-6
Michigan 5-6 (Fools)
Miami- 4-6
Alabama- 3-6

Me likey Bama!

Stay Polska,

Robnosticator





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