Sedge Court Journal
Providing sports fans with expert analysis since 2004




Wednesday, August 23, 2006


Greetings Kielbasites,

This is my most important post of the year. I strongly suggest that you:

READ EVERY SINGLE WORD.

PRINT THIS PAGE OUT, LAMINATE IT, AND REVIEW IT BEFORE YOU EVER MAKE A PICK ON YOUR OWN.

The information I am going to share with you in the next several paragraphs will give you insight on how I consistently beat the oddsmakers. You will get a glimpse of how I handicap games; where I excel, and where I struggle. Make no mistake, I am not sharing this information for your benefit, I am doing it for my own selfish personal reasons.

a. To retain my title as "Best Football Prognosticator Ever!"
b. To solidify my world reknown reputation as the Best Free Pick Handicapper on the World Wide Web.
c. To quantify and identify the areas in my prognostications I should exploit and/or avoid.

Most handicappers and sports bettors have some sort of philosophy that they adhere too. Home Dogs, Road Favorites after a Home Loss, Big Conferance vs. Small Conferance, the under on Monday Night; you name it, every gambler thinks he has an edge on the bookies. Never the less, most of these chumps end up broke halfway through the season. Thats why, like any professional endeavour, you must measure and quantify your performance. Raw data when analyzed can uncover logical fallicys and/or reinforce a betting system. Intuition and "having a feeling" are important when making a pick but an expierenced handicapper always validates his "gut" with the cold hard numbers.

Unlike many of my fellow Sedge Court Cappers, my approach has been to rely less on my gut and to focus on what I believe are sound handicapping strategies. Recently, I reviewed my 2005 ATS Football Record. What I discovered reinforced my core strategy but also uncovered some areas I believed made sense at the time but turned out to be horribly wrong.

Last year I was a documented 92-76-1 (54.8%) Against the Spread. My Game of the Month Picks were 75% and I had a 150% increase in units/points in our handicapping competition! An old man once told me "Figures Lie and Liars Figure"; he was a dumbass but he may have had a point. Thats why I decided to re-visit last years results.

My strategy last season was simple: Bet underdogs. While my fellow cappers were busting their bankrolls I was growing mine slow and steady. Recently, I reviewed all my picks to see exactly how and why I ended the year with that record. Here is the synopsis of my 2005 season along with my tips for a succesfull 2006 season and the lesson I have learned along the way. This shit is priceless.

Robnosticator's 2005 Free Football Picks (ATS) Analysis

NFL : 41-30 (57.8%)
College: 36-37 (49.3%)

Tip #1: I enjoy college football more than the NFL but clearly I am much stronger in picking the pros. 51% of my picks were in College and only 49% in the NFL. We all fall victom to wanting to have some action on the games we want to watch. The best advice I can give you is to pick your TV schedule around your bets not your bets around your TV schedule.

Over/Unders: 17-8 (68.0%)

Unders: 10-4 (71.4%)
Overs: 7-4 (63.6%)

Tip #2: This was an area I had no idea I had done so well in. These numbers tell me that in the era of "fun and gun" and the "West Coast" offensive setups, the bookmakers have been pushing the totals way up and sucking the novice sports gambler dry. That was my philosophy and why I tendend to favor the unders last year, I was just surprised at how succesful it was.

Favorites: 27-25 (52%)
Dogs: 48-42 (53.3%)

Tip #3: Although I bet underdogs 63.4% of the time the differnence in my winning percentage was not as great as I had expected. However, statisticaly speaking you should win more by playing underdogs.

After looking at these numbers I decided to do some data mining to give these figures more relevance. I broke down the stats further by looking at my results in both the NFL and College to see if I did better with favorites or dogs in either category and to evaluate what impact different point spreads had on the results.

College Football Stats:

Favorites: 10-15 (40%) overall

points giving
0 to -6: 5-5 (50%)
-7 to -14: 3-7 (30%)
-15 and up: 2-5 (28.6%)

Dogs: 26-23 (53.1) overall

points getting
0 to +6: 8-3 (72.8%)
+7 to +14: 9-9 (50%)
+15 and up: 9-11 (45%)

Tip #4: If your going to bet favorites in College Football be wary of giving more than a touchdown. Give more than two touchdowns and you deserve to lose your money. These are not winning bets. Also, avoid getting sucked into "big point spread" traps. As much as I hate to admit it "the Rat" gave me this advice two years ago. It took looking at the numbers to realize he was right all along. Getting three touchdowns may seem like a lot of points but in college it just ain't shit and you'll get burned. Unlike the pro's, coaches will run up the score when the game has been essentially decided. You will have more back door losses than covers; guaranteed. The money bet is playing the dog when equally matched big name programs face one another.

NFL Stats:

Favorites: 17-11 (61.0%)

points giving
0 to -3: 11-7 (61.1%)
-4 to -6: 4-0 (100%)
-7 to -10: 1-1 (50%)
-11 and up: 1-3 (25%)

Dogs: 22-17 (56.4%)

points getting
0 to +3: 8-5 (61.5%)
+4 to +6: 2-3 (40.0%)
+7 to +10: 9-6 (60.0%)
+11 and up: 3-4 (42.9%)

Tip #5: I was surprised when I first saw that I had better perfomance betting favorites in the NFL than I did betting underdogs; however, the numbers shed some important information. When giving more than a TD in the NFL my winning percentage dropped through the floor to a pathetic 33%. If you have to take the favorite, like in college betting, be very wary of giving more than 6 points. Also like college avoid the "Big Spread Trap"; +11 and up reflects a team with some serious issues. Unlike college football, the massive public money that only bets NFL will keep these numbers lower than were the should be. They look like a value but they really are not. The Money bet is dogs 0 to +10. These teams have covered for me close to 60% of the time.

Finally,

Tip #6: Be a contrarian. If you see a lot of action on one side take the other. Wagerline.com is an excellent resource to tell which way Joe Public is going. Look for teams where the action is 70-75% theie way. This causes the oddsmakers to move the line to encourage more betting on the otherside making the line more valuable.

If you follow these tips you should improve your winning percentage.

Stay Polska,

Robnosticator





1 Comments:
  1. Feedback At 12:54 AM ~ Anonymous freefootballbettingtips said...

    i really admire youre post,so interesting and it helps to all who are football fanatic.
     

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